Reform surge could reshape Gloucestershire’s political map, mega-poll shows

 

A major new poll has projected that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would win the largest House of Commons majority in modern British history if a General Election were held tomorrow.

The seat-by-seat MRP analysis, conducted by communications firm PLMR and Electoral Calculus, suggests Reform could secure 445 seats, leaving Labour with just 73 MPs and the Conservatives reduced to only seven. The Liberal Democrats are forecast to win 42 seats, the SNP 41, and Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party 13.

Polling shows Reform UK would win seats in Gloucester, Forest of Dean, Tewkesbury, Stroud and Cotswolds North while the Lib Dems would secure Cheltenham and Cotswolds South.

However, analysts warn that tactical voting could significantly alter the result, with more than a third of Labour supporters saying they would consider backing Conservative candidates to block Reform victories.

Mr Farage hailed the findings, saying: “Reform UK has hit 36 per cent in the polls for the very first time. Our extraordinary journey continues with pace and shows no signs of stopping.”

The MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) method is widely viewed as one of the most accurate ways to predict seat outcomes in UK elections, using detailed demographic and regional data. The poll surveyed 7,449 adults between September 10 and 18, ahead of the party conference season.

If replicated at a general election, the results would see Reform overturn numerous senior figures, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband among those projected to lose their seats. Several senior Conservatives, including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Suella Braverman, and Kemi Badenoch, could also be unseated.

Kevin Craig, Chief Executive of PLMR, described the results as a “remarkable fall from grace for the Conservative Party,” adding that voters were sending a clear message on their priorities. “The electorate is demanding action on the economy first and foremost, with immigration and the NHS still key concerns,” he said.

According to the poll, 59% of voters cited the economy and cost of living as their top issue, followed by immigration and border control (47%) and the NHS (44%).

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said the poll highlighted “just how volatile the political landscape” has become. “Anti-Reform tactical voting means the party’s headline poll lead might not translate directly into seats,” he cautioned.

While the next general election is not expected until 2029, the findings underscore growing public frustration with the major parties and the continuing rise of Reform UK in national opinion polls.

Gloucester News Centre – http://gloucesternewscentre.co.uk